forecasting [Theme] Page 3

In 1971, the psychologists Danny Kahneman and Amos Tversky decided to torture professors of statistics questions, formulated as statistical issues. One was approximately as follows (for clarity, I changed example): imagine that you live in a city where there are two hospitals - one large, the other small. On a certain day in one of these two hospitals is born with 60% of boys. What hospital this might happen? A Professor made a mistake (during normal conversation), calling a large hospital, while the essence of statistics is that large samples are more stable and have less deviations from the long-term average (in this case 50 percent of each sex) than a small sample. These professors would have failed the exams that they themselves accept. Still working as a quantum engineer, I identified hundreds of such serious mistakes made by statisticians who forgot that they statistics.