Book: Black Swan

Next time, when the Martians arrive, try to explain to them why the supporters of the destruction of the fetus in the womb, however, are opposed to the death penalty. Or why it is considered that the defenders of abortion in favor of raising taxes, but against a strong army.

My Parisian classmate, the future novelist Jean-Olivier Tedesco, spoke, telling me that it is not necessary to run to catch the metro: "I don't run for trains".
Despise your destiny. Now I do not rush to flee in order to leave on schedule. This advice may seem unpretentious, but it suited me. Learning not to rush for the train, I appreciated the true value of elegance and aesthetics in behavior, I felt that I can manage my time, schedule and life. To miss the train it's a shame, only if you chase him! Similarly, to achieve such success, what you expect from others, it is insulting only if you seek him. You are over the mice run and turn to the trough, and not outside them if you act in accordance with their own choice. Caring with paid work, if that's your decision, do more good than the money earned (such a thing may sound crazy, but I tried it, it turns out). This is the first step to have the courage to send destiny to hell. You gain much more power over life, if he choose criteria.

What we call the Black Swan (capitalized), is an event with the following three characteristics. First, it is abnormally, because nothing in the past did not promise him. Second, it has a great impact. Third, human nature makes us concoct explanations for the incident after it happened, making the event first perceived as a surprise, understandable and predictable.

Sextus Empiricist told a parable about a painter named Apelles who wanted to depict the foam falling from the lips of a horse. No matter how he struggled, nothing came of it. In furious desperation, the artist grabbed the sponge which wiped the brush, and threw it at the picture. Looking at the trail left by the sponge, he saw a very accurate picture of the foam, which could not be achieved.

Man is a social animal; ad - our environment.

Alas, recognizing their own ability to make mistakes, to not know the authority will not acquire. People need to be blinded by knowledge - we're supposed to follow leaders who can gather us together, because together is much safer than alone. Always been more profitable to walk with the crowd, albeit in the wrong direction than the right, but alone. And genes we got from those who followed the arrogant fools, not wavering sages. There is a social pathology: psychopaths easily recruit adherents.

I can find evidence of almost anything, as well as an experienced London taxi driver can even in the holiday to find the stopper in order to drive up the price.
Someone goes further, giving me examples of events that we have been able with some degree of success to predict - and in fact there is, for example a human landing on the moon or rapid growth of the economy in the XXI century. You can find plenty of "contratistas" the ideas in this book. The best of them would be that Newspapers perfectly predict theatrical performances and film screenings. See, yesterday I predicted that today the sun comes up, and it came! If I saw a man commits murder, I can hardly doubt that he is a criminal. But if I saw a man commits murder, I can't be sure of his innocence.

I was always amazed at the number of people who make astronomical profits in perfect lackeys, fawning all gain to clients and employers and more consumed with a passion for profit.

Chance favors the prepared minds.

We create toys. Some of them change the world.

Almost all modern technological breakthroughs - the creation of what is called the word Serendipity. This term was first used in a letter to the English writer Horace Walpole, while under the influence of the fairy tale "Three princes of Serendip". These illustrious princes "by accident or their own savvy are constantly committing open, finding what was looking for."

To be the boss, do not need much intelligence, it requires a certain charisma, plus the ability to represent the boredom and terrible employment (due to a very busy work schedule). Add to that the "duty" to go in the evenings to the Opera.

The person who causes damage to their predictions, either a fool or a liar. Some forecasters are more dangerous than any criminal. Figuratively speaking, let these gentlemen do not sit behind the wheel of a school bus blindfolded.

They say: "a Wise person is one who can foresee the future". No, the truly wise, who knows what the distant future is unknown for everybody.