Analytics [Theme]



Analytics plays a huge role in the development of the intellectual potential of the nation. Modern processes of state and municipal management, business and production generate huge amounts of data. How to extract the maximum useful knowledge from heterogeneous information collected with varying degrees of accuracy and expressed in different dimensional units? How to create new methods for analyzing semi-structured problems? How do you do this efficiently if the amount of data is measured in gigabytes or even terabytes? How to build algorithms that use the available information to make effective management decisions? These and many other problems cannot be solved without solid theoretical and methodological analytical developments.
The author shows the historical roots of analytics, widely presents the foreign experience of the "thought factories" with the allocation of positive aspects that can be used in Russian conditions, reveals a wide range of issues related to the methodology, technology and organization of information and analytical activities. The applied aspects of analytics, those basic elements that are necessary for a person of intellectual work, are revealed in detail and in detail. The author's understanding of the "working methodology", systemic and synergistic analysis of problems, optimal ways of making management decisions is presented. The creative laboratory, a kind of "kitchen" of analytical work, those "rational grains" that actually make analytics effective and significant for management processes are revealed.
Many managers may find the ideas outlined in the book useful, which are worth adopting, so to speak. Hence the title of the book, since it is analytics that acts in modern conditions as an effective intellectual weapon in the competitive struggle of states and corporate structures.
Despite some controversial points in the book, the author as a whole managed to create a useful, deep and serious work.
I sincerely recommend this book for undergraduate, graduate students, faculty, scientists, analytical department staff, as well as for all business people who want to think and act more creatively and productively.
Quote Explanation: The book examines a wide range of issues related to the methodology, organization and technology of information and analytical work. Abstract The possibilities of using analytical tools for the study of socio-political and economic processes, forecasting and organizing the effective functioning and development of management systems of enterprises and institutions, improving the processes of making management decisions are shown. At the level of "living knowledge" in a wide cultural and historical context, the essence of intelligent technologies, methods of applied analytical work is revealed. The characteristics of foreign and domestic analytical centers are presented.
№ 422427   Added MegaMozg 07-07-2021 / 12:48
In a sense, historians are similar to scouts. Their professional duty is to achieve completeness of the picture - to obtain objective and reliable information about the past, analyzing sources and collecting facts.
№ 410191   Added MegaMozg 26-12-2020 / 18:18
With your financial analyst. Che is there? Bitcoin. In General, I would call this class - conditional garbage. How does this work? The more news about this shit, the more demand for that shit. The more demand for this garbage, the more news-type - "Look, this thing cost ten thousand dollars!" At some point, a news: "This shit is too dohera". And they're like, "fuck it..." And at this moment this shit will be hard to sell and, therefore, its sales price will start to plummet. Well, Yes, it's possible everything I said is bullshit. You are there... think with your head.
№ 312580   Added MegaMozg 29-12-2017 / 21:09
The person who causes damage to their predictions, either a fool or a liar. Some forecasters are more dangerous than any criminal. Figuratively speaking, let these gentlemen do not sit behind the wheel of a school bus blindfolded.
№ 258170   Added MegaMozg 18-01-2017 / 17:06
The perversity of all state government plans are obvious: they can't create the possible margin of error (tolerance for error).
№ 258167   Added MegaMozg 18-01-2017 / 17:06
When an economist fails to predict the next crisis, he often writes off all on an earthquake or a revolution, stating that he is not an expert on geodesy, meteorology and political science, is to integrate these areas in their research and to recognize that his region cannot exist in isolation from the other.
№ 258156   Added MegaMozg 18-01-2017 / 17:05
The problem is that we focus on those rare cases where our method works, and almost never - numerous examples of failure.
№ 258155   Added MegaMozg 18-01-2017 / 17:05
The most interesting analysis of how academic methods work in real life, was carried out by Spyros Makridakis. He arranged the competition forecasters, using the so-called econometrics - the "scientific method" that connects economic theory with statistical measurements. Simply put, Makridakis people were made to predict in real life, and then evaluated the accuracy of their predictions. With Michelle Hibon he spent a few "M-events"; the third and last of them, M-3 - was completed in 1999. Makridakis and Hibon came to a sad conclusion: "the Newest and most complex statistical methods do not have achieved more accurate results than the simple".
№ 258154   Added MegaMozg 18-01-2017 / 17:05
Tetlock studied the problem of "experts" in politics and Economics. He asked experts from different fields to estimate the probability that during a given time period (about five years) there will be certain political, economic and military events. At the exit he was about twenty-seven thousand predictions of almost three hundred professionals. Economists accounted for about a quarter of the sample. The study found that the experts went far beyond the limits of their tolerances for error. It was discovered and the expert problem: between the results of the doctors and students there was no difference. Professors with extensive list of publications, coped no better than the journalists. The only pattern that is found Tetlock was the inverse dependence of the forecast from the reputation: the owners of the big names predicted worse than those who have not got.
But Tetlock set ourselves the task not so much to show what really are the experts (although he did a great job), but find out why before they did not realize that they do not do their job, in other words, how they manage to "RUB points".
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You say you played another game. Let's say you failed to predict the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union (didn't see this coming no sociologist). It is easy to say that you perfectly understood the essence of political processes in the Soviet Union, but the Russian, being overly Russian, artfully concealed significant economic components. If you possess these economic data, you would have certainly failed to predict the fall of the Soviet regime. We must not blame your qualifications. You can also do if you have predicted a decisive victory of al Gore over George W. Bush. You didn't know that the economy is in such dire Straits; indeed, this fact seems to have been a mystery to all. You're not an economist, but a struggle, it turns out, was economic the ring.
You just blame it on unforeseen circumstances. Happened something extraordinary, outside of your field of science. Since it was impossible to predict, you are not to blame. It was a Black Swan, and you are not required to predict Black swans.
№ 258151   Added MegaMozg 18-01-2017 / 17:05
Bull showed me an amazing research work, has just finished his trainee and already accepted for publication; it is considered in detail by two thousand predictions made by securities analysts. The work clearly showed that these broker-analysts did not predict anything: the naive forecast of a person, simply transferring the numbers from the past period to the next would be slightly worse. But analysts have information about orders, forthcoming contracts, and planned expenditures and due to this valuable knowledge seems to predict much better than our naive predictor that does not hold any information except past data. Worse, the gap between predicted and actual values was more substantial than between different predictions and, therefore, analysts led the herd instinct. Otherwise, the predictions have defended from each other as they are separated from reality.
Quote Explanation: Jean-Philippe Boulou – French scientist, after Benoit Mandelbrot (which initiated this direction in the late 1950-ies) use methods of statistical physics to economic variables.
№ 258150   Added MegaMozg 18-01-2017 / 17:05
Several researchers studied the work and the self-esteem of analysts of securities, got amazing results, especially in relation to epistemic arrogance of these figures. Comparing them with the meteorologists predicting the weather, Tyszka Tadeusz and Piotr Zielonka concluded that analysts predict the worse, but have more faith in their own ability. In any case, they lack the aplomb not to reduce the margin of error after blatant failures.
№ 258138   Added MegaMozg 18-01-2017 / 17:05
Just as an athlete proud of his strength and agility, and finds pleasure in the exercise, forcing his muscles to work, so the analyst enjoys any opportunity to clarify something or to untangle.
№ 206254   Added MegaMozg 15-01-2017 / 10:15
Study the depth, throwing stones at her.
№ 198628   Added MegaMozg 13-01-2017 / 20:07
Millions of people saw apples fall, but only Newton asked why.
№ 140765   Added MegaMozg 09-01-2017 / 22:46
The ability to analyze should not be confused with simple ingenuity, because the analyst always inventive, while not every creative person is able to analyze.
№ 119335   Added MegaMozg 07-01-2017 / 22:12