Author of quotes: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

My definition of a loser is this: if you make mistakes, the loser does not analyze the situation, do not benefit from their mistakes, become confused and withdraws into himself, instead be glad that he learned something new; he's trying to explain why you were wrong instead of moving on. These types often consider themselves the victims of a conspiracy, bad bosses or bad weather.
Finally - one observation. One who has never sinned is less reliable than he who has sinned once. And the man who was wrong a lot and often - but never made one and the same mistake twice, - more reliable than one who was not mistaken never.

Next time, when the Martians arrive, try to explain to them why the supporters of the destruction of the fetus in the womb, however, are opposed to the death penalty. Or why it is considered that the defenders of abortion in favor of raising taxes, but against a strong army.

The psychologist Gerda of Gigerenzer there is a simple heuristic rule. Never ask the doctor what you need to do. Ask him what he would do in your place. You will be surprised by the difference between the answers.

My Parisian classmate, the future novelist Jean-Olivier Tedesco, spoke, telling me that it is not necessary to run to catch the metro: "I don't run for trains".
Despise your destiny. Now I do not rush to flee in order to leave on schedule. This advice may seem unpretentious, but it suited me. Learning not to rush for the train, I appreciated the true value of elegance and aesthetics in behavior, I felt that I can manage my time, schedule and life. To miss the train it's a shame, only if you chase him! Similarly, to achieve such success, what you expect from others, it is insulting only if you seek him. You are over the mice run and turn to the trough, and not outside them if you act in accordance with their own choice. Caring with paid work, if that's your decision, do more good than the money earned (such a thing may sound crazy, but I tried it, it turns out). This is the first step to have the courage to send destiny to hell. You gain much more power over life, if he choose criteria.

What we call the Black Swan (capitalized), is an event with the following three characteristics. First, it is abnormally, because nothing in the past did not promise him. Second, it has a great impact. Third, human nature makes us concoct explanations for the incident after it happened, making the event first perceived as a surprise, understandable and predictable.

Sextus Empiricist told a parable about a painter named Apelles who wanted to depict the foam falling from the lips of a horse. No matter how he struggled, nothing came of it. In furious desperation, the artist grabbed the sponge which wiped the brush, and threw it at the picture. Looking at the trail left by the sponge, he saw a very accurate picture of the foam, which could not be achieved.

If one day you have to choose between the promises of a gangster and a government official, contact the gangster. Always. The institutions - unlike individuals - no honor.

The biggest risk is a new epidemic. Media is underestimating this danger, and rarely raise the hype around the scientific publications that the resistance of bacteria to antibiotics is growing, or that there are new strains of viruses. Such neglect makes the epidemic one of the most likely candidates for new "black swans".



Explanation of the quote:

The Internet newspaper "RBC", November 16, 2017.
["Black Swan" theory, considering hardly predictable and rare events that have significant consequences. The author of the theory - Nassim Nicholas Taleb.]

Educated person obtains information mainly not from the outside world and from other people - from magazines, social networks, from different authorities. The worst pathologies of our time - the loss of contact with reality.

Stupidity - call panic due to coronavirus stupidity.


Quote in English

Man is a social animal; ad - our environment.

We are still very far removed from our ancestors roamed the Savannah. Our views are full of prejudices even today (I'd say especially today). Just as when a primitive man scratched his nose, saw that it was raining, and came up with an intricate method of rubbing his nose for "evoking the" long-awaited rain, we link economic prosperity with interest rates the Federal reserve Board or the success of the company with the advent of "at the helm" of a new President. Bookshelves the complete autobiographies of successful men and women setting out their own version reaching the top (there is the expression "at the right time and the right place" that weaken the effect of any of their statements). This confusion affects people of different views: the teacher of literature gives a deep meaning completely random manifestations of art style, while the economist proudly detects "regularities" and "anomalies" in the data, generated at random.

Alas, recognizing their own ability to make mistakes, to not know the authority will not acquire. People need to be blinded by knowledge - we're supposed to follow leaders who can gather us together, because together is much safer than alone. Always been more profitable to walk with the crowd, albeit in the wrong direction than the right, but alone. And genes we got from those who followed the arrogant fools, not wavering sages. There is a social pathology: psychopaths easily recruit adherents.

I can find evidence of almost anything, as well as an experienced London taxi driver can even in the holiday to find the stopper in order to drive up the price.
Someone goes further, giving me examples of events that we have been able with some degree of success to predict - and in fact there is, for example a human landing on the moon or rapid growth of the economy in the XXI century. You can find plenty of "contratistas" the ideas in this book. The best of them would be that Newspapers perfectly predict theatrical performances and film screenings. See, yesterday I predicted that today the sun comes up, and it came! If I saw a man commits murder, I can hardly doubt that he is a criminal. But if I saw a man commits murder, I can't be sure of his innocence.