prediction [Theme] Page 3

Forecaster is a skillfully-tuned random number generator.

But who needs a weather prediction? The fact that it deteriorates, is in itself bad enough; why even poison his life, learning about it beforehand?

- Can I predict my fate?
- I great demand, so you'll have to wait in line. Wait at least a half hour. And then you do not need to go to a fortune teller. Those who come to me, a much larger uncertainty. They are in the depths of the dark tunnel from which they see no way out. But you - you're just a little lonely. The best cure for loneliness is a cat.

- You can predict the future?
- Sometimes.
- Can you predict mine?
- No.
Why?
Because if you won't listen to me, you have no future.

How little of fate cheat,
Predicting sadness!
In trouble it is so constant,
How volatile happiness.
How faithful astrologer
Was she suggesting
Only misfortune - always be
Came true her predictions!

Are you kidding? Yes, there is nothing better than to blindly trust the predictions of cookies!

The person who causes damage to their predictions, either a fool or a liar. Some forecasters are more dangerous than any criminal. Figuratively speaking, let these gentlemen do not sit behind the wheel of a school bus blindfolded.

Here has a classic mental mechanism - the so-called anchor effect. You tame your fear of uncertainty, thinking and clinging to it as an island in the middle of nowhere. This effect was discovered by the fathers of the psychology of uncertainty Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky when they were just starting to explore misconceptions in the use of heuristics. The effect works as follows. Kahneman and Tversky offered volunteers to rotate the roulette wheel. Volunteers looked at the number, knowing it by accident. They were then asked to mention the number of members of the United Nations of African countries. The response correlated with the number drawn.
Ask someone to call you the last four digits of your social security number, and then the approximate number of dentists in Manhattan. You will see that by activating the consciousness of the interlocutor a four-digit number, you force him to relate his assumption with this number.

In the not so distant past, say the pre-computer era, the plans remained vague and qualitative (non-quantitative sense), had to make a mental effort to keep them in mind, and to do the layout for the distant future was a real pain. To plan, required pencils, erasers, desks, littered with papers, and a huge trash can. Accounting add love to a tedious and monotonous work. In short, planning was time-consuming and unpleasant activity related to the same with constant doubt.
But the introduction of spreadsheets has produced a real revolution. Using ekselevskoy table computer literate person can effortlessly renew the "sales plan" to infinity. On paper, on a computer screen or, more trenchant, in powerpointonly format the plan takes on a life of its own, loses its vagueness and abstractness, "beastlies", as the philosophers say, is filled with concrete, starts a new life as a material object.
My friend Brian Hinchcliffe, while we're together sweat in the local gym, put forward the following idea. Perhaps it is the ease with which you can design a future, multiplying the cells in these programmes-tables, has led to the emergence of an army of soothsayers who confidently issue long-term forecasts (without leaving a "tunnel" of their own assumptions).

In 1971, the psychologists Danny Kahneman and Amos Tversky decided to torture professors of statistics questions, formulated as statistical issues. One was approximately as follows (for clarity, I changed example): imagine that you live in a city where there are two hospitals - one large, the other small. On a certain day in one of these two hospitals is born with 60% of boys. What hospital this might happen? A Professor made a mistake (during normal conversation), calling a large hospital, while the essence of statistics is that large samples are more stable and have less deviations from the long-term average (in this case 50 percent of each sex) than a small sample. These professors would have failed the exams that they themselves accept. Still working as a quantum engineer, I identified hundreds of such serious mistakes made by statisticians who forgot that they statistics.

The inability to predict the anomaly leads to the inability to predict the course of history, if we consider the proportion of anomalies in the dynamics of events.

Today one person told me: "don't predict myself ever anything wrong with that, and reading myself one good".

In ancient times woman played the role of a clairvoyant, not because she was given to predict the future, but because she was the future.

Messing should not be mistaken. Messing it will not be forgiven.