experiment [Theme] Page 3

The most interesting analysis of how academic methods work in real life, was carried out by Spyros Makridakis. He arranged the competition forecasters, using the so-called econometrics - the "scientific method" that connects economic theory with statistical measurements. Simply put, Makridakis people were made to predict in real life, and then evaluated the accuracy of their predictions. With Michelle Hibon he spent a few "M-events"; the third and last of them, M-3 - was completed in 1999. Makridakis and Hibon came to a sad conclusion: "the Newest and most complex statistical methods do not have achieved more accurate results than the simple".

Several researchers studied the work and the self-esteem of analysts of securities, got amazing results, especially in relation to epistemic arrogance of these figures. Comparing them with the meteorologists predicting the weather, Tyszka Tadeusz and Piotr Zielonka concluded that analysts predict the worse, but have more faith in their own ability. In any case, they lack the aplomb not to reduce the margin of error after blatant failures.

Paul Slovic suggested the bookmakers to select from eighty-eight kinds of all kinds of statistical data on past horse races those that they seem to be most useful when calculating the odds. First, the bookmakers were given the ten most useful parameters and asked to predict the outcome of the competition. Then added ten more options, and again asked to predict the outcome. But additional information is not added to the results of accuracy, but significantly increased participants ' confidence in their rightness. So, we have proved: the information is harmful.

In that moment my world changed forever. The reapers Cree took me to the ship and began the experiment. I didn't know, but the reapers used the blood of the Cree, to transform my DNA. Changing who I was, the reapers did the last step to fulfill the promise of what I'd become.
- So that's how you become unsociable.
- I and many others. We went through the experiment Cree thousand years ago. These first humans, they are your ancestors.

- For cleanliness of experiment we need someone who does not love you! Have someone in mind?
- Of course!.. Almost all of them.

They experimented on the poor, and if it worked, then the method offered rich. Well, if not worked, the poor shortage was expected to continue with the experiment.

Experiment with improvisation go hand in hand.

In experimental works need to doubt as long as the facts are not forced to relinquish any doubts.

Remember the science experiment. A group of people were shown photographs from their childhood. Nine pictures were real and one fake. Their children's silhouettes were placed in Luna Park, where they have never been. 80 percent recognized themselves in the images once they have accepted the fake as reality. 20% could not recall this. Scientists have been asked to take pictures with him, think home can, remember. And when they came back, also remembered these pictures, that was a beautiful day in the Park with their parents, they remembered a completely fabricated experience.

During the first screening of women immediately remembered handsome men, indicating that they primarily tend to pay attention to men with interesting appearance. However, during the experiment we noticed that gradually the interest in the handsome weakens and completely disappears. Interesting, even though males are attracted to women who do not stay for long in their minds.

Every experiment, successful or not, every inch, every degree of heating - it all added up. You can't measure time in the laboratory, but the experiment has value, if not for the results, so for the purity of the attempt.

The greatest pleasure of the experimenter is to see confirmed his calculations!

Interesting movie turns out! Foreign cows the old fashioned way sdoit - tradition, and yogurt for the experiment sdoit - already theft.

Best to check by experiment: when you can really acquire the knowledge while to speculate and making inferences, will never be truly educated man.